How sports betting is calculated

What will you learn?

Betting quotes are a numerical indicator that displays the probability of the outcome of a meeting of teams or athletes, which includes the bookmaker’s margin. The quote gives the bettor information about the possible profit on the event, if the outcome is correctly guessed. Odds levels may change when the situation that influences the outcome of an event changes, or due to “line load”. All odds bookmakers are divided into 3 main types: European, British, American.

Before you place a bet, and ideally even before you start registering with a bookmaker, it is very important to understand what bet quotes mean. Without a precise definition of this concept and knowledge regarding its correct understanding, the profit received from making a passing bet may not be what the bettor was hoping for.

Reference! Line load is a situation in which changes in indicators are not caused by some objective reasons, for example, the failure of the leading scorers to enter the main team or the favorites in the second team, but simply by a large number of bets on one of the event markets. This situation can be unprofitable for bookmakers (which they definitely do not want to allow), so a small adjustment in quotes allows you to adjust the markets.

Stages of odds calculation by bookmakers

Offices carry out a long work before setting the odds on the outcome of the event. Large companies keep several specialists on staff for these purposes at once, some use the services of outsourcing specialists or look for experts remotely. But in any case, bookmaker owners devote maximum time to this process, because the profit of the bookmaker itself depends on it. Stages are formed as follows:

  • in-depth analysis of the event and receiving reports from experts.
  • margin setting (each bookmaker has its own margin level).
  • obligatory comparison of quotes with other bookmakers (competitors).
  • control of changes in the balance of forces (change against this background of the level of odds
  • before the start of the event).
  • equalizing the load to get profitable numbers on both shoulders.

Factors that analysts take into account when calculating odds

As mentioned earlier, it is rare that a bookmaker has the opportunity to keep its own staff of analysts. Often, everything starts far outside the office in special analytical international centers. Specialists take into account a huge number of factors to assess the likelihood of each outcome:

  • team lineups (main team or players from the bench);
  • motivation for meeting with each of the opponents;
  • the presence of injuries, deletions;
  • head-to-head statistics;
  • venue of the match (home match or away match);
  • referee team (a strict or loyal referee can greatly influence the outcome of the match);
  • weather conditions (in bad weather it is difficult to count on high performance);
  • general statistical indicators (formed over several years and updated every day);
  • team coaches (experienced coaches are valued higher);
  • news feed (shocking information, as, for example, in the story of Kokorin and Mamaev);
  • insider information (sometimes even a divorce or loss of a loved one can affect a player);
  • seasonal indicators, etc.

Taking into account many factors, the bookmaker receives from the analytical center not ready-made odds levels, but the probability as a percentage. For example, during a meeting between Barcelona and Real Madrid, the first team has a 60% chance of winning, 25% of a draw and 15% of losing. Now, having a percentage ratio in hand, the analysts of the bookmakers themselves begin to work with the numbers that they represent in the line. There are several types of kefs.

Decimal (European) types

This calculation of quotes for sports is the closest to the eye of the domestic bettor and the countries of Eastern Europe. They are also sometimes used in Asian countries. This variant of the quote, multiplied by the amount of money wagered, makes it possible to obtain the exact level of profit. For example, you can take 1000 rubles and multiply by 1.20. In the course of simple arithmetic calculations, an amount of 1200 rubles is obtained, of which the net profit will be 200 rubles. To translate the value into a percentage of the probability of an event along with the margin, it is enough to divide 100% (the initial value) by the bookmaker’s quote level (in our example) 1.20 – we get 83%. A variant of this type of quote can be considered on the example of a free forecast Bayern – PSG.

American variant

It’s worth starting with the fact that the American bookmaker indicator can have 2 options: plus and minus (+120 and -140). Everything is simple here: a plus quote shows the amount of potential net winnings in the case of a bet of $100. In other words, if odds levels are +120, this means that for every $100 wagered, the bettor will make a net profit of $120.

The negative quote of bookmakers shows the amount that must be wagered to receive a win of $100. If the level is -140, this indicates that you need to bet $140 to get $100 as a net profit. To convert the indicator to a positive decimal form, you need to substitute the values ​​under the following formula: 120 divided by 100 and add one, you get 2.20. For a negative odd, you need to divide 100 by 140 and add one, you get 1.71.

Fractional (UK) odds

This betting value is often used in England and a number of other countries. The fractional coefficient indicates the ratio of the amount of net profit to the amount of the bet that you need to place in order to receive this profit. If the quotes indicate, for example, 6/2, this means that for every 2 dollars invested, the bettor will receive 6 dollars of net proceeds. To understand this option, you can try to translate the coefficient into a decimal that is understandable to us. To do this, we substitute the following formula: 6 divided by 2 and add 1, we get 6/2+1=4.00. Details about the types of odds can be found in this article.

Asian systems

It is clear that bookmakers from different countries use different odds systems. Most offices around the world use the previous three options, but in Asia, the other three models predominate. When betting in such online establishments, it is very important to learn how to correctly translate them into the decimal format that is familiar to us.

Hong Kong system

As the name implies, such a system is used mainly only in the Hong Kong BC. It is very rare to find it in other provinces or cities in China. Other bookmakers in Asia often use Indonesian or Malaysian odds, so you need to be extremely careful. Of all the Asian models, this system is closest to the decimal and common understanding.

There is nothing simpler: to distinguish the Hong Kong kef from the usual “ours”, it is enough to subtract one from the latter. For example, in our office there is a coefficient of 2.2, which means that in the Hong Kong version it will look like 1.2. If we have 1.01, then the Asian version will look like 0.01. To convert the Hong Kong system to the usual decimal, you need to add a unit. The formula will look like this, for example: 0.53+1=1.53 or 1.44+1=2.44. By betting 1000 rubles according to the Hong Kong formula for odds 2, the bettor will receive 3000 rubles, and the net profit will be 2000 rubles.

Indonesian system

The Indonesian method is similar to the American one discussed above, only it is divisible by 100. If, for example, -300 or +250 is indicated in American odds, then in the Indonesian system they will look like this: -3.00 and +2.50. In the case of a negative option, this indicates how much you need to bet to win 1 ruble. For example, let’s take a coefficient of -2.527, in order to win 1 ruble, you need to bet 2 rubles and 52 kopecks. When translated into decimal, it will be shown simply 2.52. A positive odd shows net profit at a rate of 1 ruble. For example, with a coefficient of +2.53, it turns out that with a bet of 1 ruble, you can get a net profit of 2 rubles and 53 kopecks.

Malaysian system

Such a variant of the coefficient always has values less than or equal to one. In the case of a negative odds option, it shows the bet amount to receive a net gain of one ruble. For example, if a bettor sees such an option -0.2, this means that with a bet of 0.2 rubles, you can get 1 ruble of net winnings if the forecast turns out to be correct (by the way, you can subscribe to VIP forecasts, which, in our opinion, are the most accurate, by this link). If the coefficient is positive, this shows the amount of net winnings when making a bet in the amount of 1 ruble. For example, a quote of +0.2 indicates that with a bet of 1 ruble, you can get a net gain of 0.2. To get acquainted with betting odds, you can additionally enlist this article.

System name What it looks like (for example 1.5)
Decimal 1.5
American -200
British 1/2
Hong Kong 0.50
Indonesian -2
Malaysian 0.50

Formation of odds in bookmaker

Let’s take a look at how the quotation of a bet on an event works. So, it should be clear to any bettor that a high level of this parameter indicates not only large potential profits, but also high risks. But how are the coefficients formed? Two main parameters are taken into account: bookmaker margin and the probability of an event outcome. With the second, everything is clear, the higher the probability of an event, the lower its coefficient level and vice versa.

In the course of the event, the levels of the coefficients are constantly changing: the more obvious the result of the meeting becomes, the lower its level falls. Bookmaker margin also greatly affects the formation of the odds. Margin means the percentage that the bookmaker takes for the provision of its services. It is taken into account in any case, regardless of the outcome. Any bet made must take into account this parameter.